Calorie deficit calculator: the gap, and what it implies
Daily deficit against an estimated maintenance of 2,759 kcalworked example
500 kcal
- Intake this implies
- 2,259 kcal
- Share of your maintenance estimate
- 18.1%
- Weekly rate under the 1958 rule
- 0.45 kg3,500 kcal per pound — an upper bound, not a forecast
- Over a year, with adaptation
- 11.3 kg – 22.7 kgThe straight line alone would say 23.7 kg
A deficit is a difference between two figures, and the one it is measured against is an estimate carrying a ±10% band. That means 500 kcal against a maintenance estimate of 2,759 kcal could really be anywhere from 224 kcal to 776 kcal. The scale settles it; the equation only starts the conversation.
Realistic range
11.3 kg to 22.7 kg
The 3,500 kcal per pound rule assumes two things that are not true: that every kilogram lost carries the same energy, and that the body needs as much energy at a lighter weight as it did at a heavier one. Hall (2008) showed the first depends on how much body fat a person starts with, and Hall and colleagues (2011) found that a sustained change in intake produces only about half of its eventual weight change in the first year. A straight-line figure is therefore a ceiling on what the arithmetic allows, not a forecast of what happens.
| Deficit | Intake | Weekly rate (1958 rule) | 12 weeks, as a range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 kcal/day | 2,509 kcal | 0.23 kg | 1.3 kg – 2.7 kg |
| 500 kcal/day | 2,259 kcal | 0.45 kg | 2.6 kg – 5.4 kg |
| 750 kcal/day | 2,009 kcal | 0.68 kg | 3.9 kg – 8.2 kg |
| 1000 kcal/day | 1,759 kcal | 0.91 kg | 5.2 kg – 10.9 kg |
Need the maintenance figure first? The TDEE calculator estimates it from four inputs. To see the same gap projected over months rather than a year, use the weight loss calculator.
A calorie deficit is the gap between the energy you use and the energy you eat. This calculator works out that gap from your estimated maintenance figure, converts it using the 3,500 kcal per pound rule, and shows the correction Hall published in 2008 for why that rule overstates things.
- Resting energy expenditure (Mifflin-St Jeor) — BMR (kcal/day) = 10 x weight(kg) + 6.25 x height(cm) - 5 x age(y) + 5 (male) or - 161 (female). Verified against Mifflin et al., Am J Clin Nutr 1990 (Derived from 498 healthy adults aged 19 to 78. It landed within 10% of measured resting metabolic rate for more people than any other equation in the Frankenfield 2005 review, which also means it missed by more than 10% for some of them.)
- Activity multipliers for total daily energy expenditureconvention — TDEE = BMR x activity multiplier (1.2, 1.375, 1.55, 1.725 or 1.9). Verified against FAO/WHO/UNU, Human energy requirements (2004) - the documented PAL framework this ladder approximates (No primary source publishes this ladder and no error term was ever attached to it. Choosing one rung rather than its neighbour moves the answer by roughly 200 to 300 kcal/day, which makes it the largest single source of disagreement between two calculators given the same body.)
- The 3,500 kcal per pound rule (Wishnofsky) — 1 lb of body weight = 3,500 kcal, or about 7,716 kcal per kg. Verified against Wishnofsky, Am J Clin Nutr 1958 (Rests on the tissue lost being mostly fat of constant composition, and on energy needs staying the same at a lighter weight. Hall 2008 and Hall 2011 show both assumptions fail, so a straight-line figure is a ceiling rather than a forecast.)
- Required energy deficit per unit weight loss (Hall) — the energy density of lost weight is not constant: more initial body fat means a larger cumulative deficit per kg lost. Verified against Hall, Int J Obes 2008 (A modelling result checked against published weight-loss data in lean and obese subjects. The 3,500 kcal per pound rule approximately matched only above roughly 30 kg of initial body fat, and overestimated the deficit required below that.)
- Eventual weight change per sustained change in intake (Hall) — about 1 kg of eventual change per 100 kJ/day, or 10 kcal/day per pound; about half of it within 1 year and about 95% within 3 years. Verified against Hall et al., The Lancet 2011 (A rule of thumb for an average overweight adult, not a personal trajectory. This site interpolates linearly between the published 1-year and 3-year anchors and holds at 95% beyond three years rather than extrapolating past what was published.)
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Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate a calorie deficit?
How much weight does a 500 calorie deficit mean?
Why does a deficit stop working after a while?
What size deficit should I use?
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